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The Best 4th-Quarter Quarterbacks in the NFL

How We Did It

To rank the best 4th-quarter Quarterbacks in the NFL we used an algorithm based on metrics including:

  • Game-winning drives and touchdown passes
  • Fourth-quarter comebacks
  • Touchdown passes thrown per interceptions in the 4th quarter and overtime

All metrics are waited evenly. This study focuses specifically on regular season figures and factors in games played to encapsulate how many times players were able to achieve in the 4th-quarter based on the amount of opportunities had. To gather an appropriate sample size, Quarterbacks included in the ranking must have started at least 32 games.

The Results

 
 

Overall Performance Ranking

The Best 4th-Quarter Quarterbacks in the NFL
Performance Rank
Quarterback
Overall Score
1 Tony Romo 100.00
2 Matt Ryan 98.51
3 Tom Brady 92.44
4 Matt Stafford 91.27
5 Peyton Manning 90.79
6 Ben Roethlisberger 85.58
7 Drew Brees 83.82
8 Eli Manning 81.42
9 Jay Cutler 79.00
10 Josh Freeman 74.68
11 Philip Rivers 70.13
12 Joe Flacco 69.33
13 Andy Dalton 69.16
14 Carson Palmer 65.25
15 Alex Smith 64.83
16 Matt Schaub 64.39
17 Aaron Rodgers 63.94
18 Michael Vick 62.68
19 Sam Bradford 57.37
20 Chad Henne 37.00
21 Cam Newton 32.66
 

Rankings Based On Individual Metrics

Top 5: 4th-Quarter Comebacks (% of games played)
Overall Rank
Player
4th-Quarter Comebacks (% of games played)
2 Matt Ryan 19.3%
1 Tony Romo 18.2%
4 Matt Stafford 18.0%
8 Eli Manning 17.0%
5 Peyton Manning 16.9%
 
Top 5: Game-Winning Drives (% of games played)
Overall Rank
Player
Game-Winning Drives (% of games played)
2 Matt Ryan 27.7%
6 Ben Roethlisberger 22.1%
4 Matt Stafford 22.0%
5 Peyton Manning 21.7%
3 Tom Brady 21.5%
 
Top 5: TD-to-INT ratio in 4th Quarter
Overall Rank
Player
TD-to-INT ratio (4th quarter)
1 Tony Romo 2.5 - 1
17 Aaron Rodgers 2.39 - 1
7 Drew Brees 2.32 - 1
3 Tom Brady 2.16 - 1
5 Peyton Manning 1.84 - 1
Sources:
  • NFL.com
  • http://www.pro-football-reference.com
 
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12/20/2014 1:13:43 AM on TCWEB1